Breathing Easier in May?

Robert Abela received a lot of stick for his statement that Malta would return to quasi-normal life by May. I shared the general scoffing scepticism - until I actually sat down, thought about it and looked at the figures.

The disbelief seems to have been generated on the basis of the mistaken assumption that quasi-normal socio-economic activity could only resume once herd immunity was achieved. Were that the case we could not contemplate opening up before we would have inoculated at least 70% of the population (if not 80% or even more given the high transmissibility of Covid-19 powered by the new variants). Government estimates it will take till the end of Summer for the lower figure to be reached.

But do we have to aim for herd immunity to ease restrictions and open up the economy? Currently there have been some 270 deaths in Malta associated with the virus. Virtually all of them have involved older individuals. One would be hard-pressed to find anyone under sixty years of age who succumbed to any condition  within four weeks of having contracted the virus. While there can never be anything approaching a cast-iron guarantee that nobody under sixty who is not seriously ill with some other condition will not die through Covid-related illnesses, the chances that people in their 50s or younger will die while infected with Sars-COV-2  appear to be slim indeed.

It appears that all vulnerable people which would include all those above, say, the age of 55, medical and other front-liners (including teachers) and all those suffering from certain conditions could be vaccinated within a few months. The first Pfizer vaccines were administered on thee 27th December 2020. From that day till the end of May 2021, 156 days will have passed. Based on what appears to be a realistic average vaccination rate of 2500 individuals per day - and assuming the administration of 2 doses per person – in just over 5 months 195,000 people would have been fully inoculated. Assuming the residents of Malta number 500,000, that would cover the 34% of the population comprising people aged 55 and upwards (Source: IndexMundi Malta Demographics), and the estimated 25,000 front-liners and other vulnerable individuals. If the vaccination rate picks up even more consistently (as many are expecting it to do) the target could be achieved before the end of May. 

Warily easing restrictions in place at the moment - thus giving a much-needed boost to the economy - could be an option for the country to consider. Obviously, one should not be envisaging a situation where all protective measures are terminated - far from it. Although mortality from Covid would not be a big problem, the dangers of people contracting Covid, not succumbing to it, but suffering long-term health consequences will have to be considered. Hence a strong dose of prudence will still be essential if health is to be safeguarded.

This scenario depends on the ready availability of vaccines. It also does not take into account the establishment of variants of the virus not susceptible to some or all of the vaccines nor other unforeseeable factors which could determine conditions hitherto unknown. However, as things can be viewed now, Malta’s economy and social life could take a turn for the better in as little as less than four months from now.