Robert Abela received a lot of stick for his statement that Malta would return to quasi-normal life by May. I shared the general scoffing scepticism - until I actually sat down, thought about it and looked at the figures.
The disbelief seems to have been generated on the basis of the mistaken assumption that quasi-normal socio-economic activity could only resume once herd immunity was achieved. Were that the case we could not contemplate opening up before we would have inoculated at least 70% of the population (if not 80% or even more given the high transmissibility of Covid-19 powered by the new variants). Government estimates it will take till the end of Summer for the lower figure to be reached.
Warily easing restrictions in place at the moment - thus giving a much-needed boost to the economy - could be an option for the country to consider. Obviously, one should not be envisaging a situation where all protective measures are terminated - far from it. Although mortality from Covid would not be a big problem, the dangers of people contracting Covid, not succumbing to it, but suffering long-term health consequences will have to be considered. Hence a strong dose of prudence will still be essential if health is to be safeguarded.
This scenario depends on the ready availability of vaccines. It also does not take into account the establishment of variants of the virus not susceptible to some or all of the vaccines nor other unforeseeable factors which could determine conditions hitherto unknown. However, as things can be viewed now, Malta’s economy and social life could take a turn for the better in as little as less than four months from now.